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Global Sugar nears two-month high, rising output in key producing countries likely to cap upside
30-Dec-2025 15:33
Global Sugar futures are witnessing modest gains but the upside appears capped amid hopes of elevated output in major producing countries. The Raw Sugar futures scaled up around two-month high above 15.30 cents per pound in last session amid tepid cues from equities and marginal weakness in the US dollar. Sugar prices are down around 20% this year. The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 million metric tonnes or MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up 18.8% y/y. The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. Domestic sugar production from October 1 to December 15 jumped 28% y/y to 7.83 MMT, reflecting a robust crushing activity. Meanwhile, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT. Unica reported further that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November edged up 1.1% y/y to 39.90 MMT.

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