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Market Speaks: Global oil demand set to rise 830 kb/d in 2025, IEA Says
11-Dec-2025 15:38
The IEA's latest monthly report projects global oil demand to increase by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook. Demand growth this year is led by gasoil and jet/kerosene, while fuel oil loses ground to natural gas and solar in power generation. Looking ahead to 2026, demand is expected to rise further by 860 kb/d, with petrochemical feedstocks driving more than 60% of growth, up from 40% in 2025. On the supply side, global oil output fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending the decline from September's record of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d, with OPEC+ accounting for over three-quarters of the reduction. Russian and Venezuelan exports were major contributors to the drop, with Russian shipments down 420 kb/d, pushing revenues down to $11 billion, $3.6 billion below last year. Overall, global oil supply growth has been revised lower to 3 mb/d in 2025 and 2.4 mb/d in 2026, reaching 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d respectively, highlighting a tightening market amid robust demand.

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