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Commodities Buzz: EIA says crude oil continues to fall, expects Brent to average $55 per barrel in first quarter of 2026
10-Dec-2025 10:23
Energy Information Administration or EIA stated in a latest monthly update that the Brent crude oil spot price averaged $64 per barrel (b) in November, which is $11/b lower than in November 2024. Crude oil prices continue to fall as growing crude oil production outweighs the effect of increased drone attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure, and the latest sanctions on Russia's oil sector. EIA forecast that growing global oil production and lower demand over the winter will accelerate the accumulation of oil inventories, resulting in further crude oil price declines in the coming months. It also forecast that the Brent price will drop to an average of $55/b in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) and will stay near that price for the rest of the year. Strong global oil production growth has outpaced consumption in recent months, driving our assessment that global oil inventories have risen quickly in the second half of 2025, according to EIA. In 2026, it expects production and consumption to grow at similar rates, but production levels will continue to exceed consumption, further adding to inventories. The global oil inventory builds will exceed 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, which is similar to this year's increase.

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