International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated in its latest World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO-2025) that global demand for crude oil was 100 mb/d in 2024. In the currency policy scenario or CPS, it rises to 105 mb/d in 2035 and 113 mb/d in 2050, an average annual increase of around 0.5 mb/d. The largest increases to 2035 are for oil use as petrochemical feedstock and other industrial activities, and in aviation. Demand in road transport in 2035 is similar to levels in 2024: by 2035, there are 430 million electric cars on the road worldwide – 60% of which are in China and 25% in Europe – and these avoid more than 6 mb/d of oil demand.

Between 2015 and 2024, the United States increased supply by 8 mb/d while global oil demand increased by 6.5 mb/d. Meeting the rise in oil demand in the CPS to 2050 requires contributions from a much wider range of supply sources. This includes more output from countries currently under sanctions, a willingness among low-cost producers to expand beyond announced capacity limits, and a substantial rise in oil prices to incentivise new exploration and development in higher cost regions. Non-OPEC+ supply rises by 4 mb/d to 2035 – three quarters of the increase in global oil demand over this period – led by increases in the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. Supply then falls back to 2024 levels by 2050.

Powered by Commodity Insights