IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated at the 2025 Annual Meetings Plenary that despite the sweeping policy shifts we have seen this year, the global economy has held up reasonably well thus far. World growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026—slower than needed and below what we forecast one year ago, but not a dramatic slowdown. One reason for this resilience has been private sector adaptability, as seen in the import frontloading, the stockbuilding, and the supply-chain strengthening. Years of robust profits have allowed exporters and importers to squeeze margins, cushioning the price impact of higher tariffs on consumers, at least for now.

She noted further that from technology to geopolitics to climate to trade, change is unsettling. The world trading system that delivered so much for so many is being shaken to its core—for many reasons, including because the playing field wasn’t truly level and the people left behind received too little help in retooling for new and better jobs. The U.S. tariff rates are shooting up this year. But 188 of 191 IMF member countries have so far avoided tit-for-tat tariff actions. Having noted that trade barriers hurt both growth and productivity, and having urged policymakers to preserve trade as an engine of growth, she welcomed this restraint by most countries and noted that there will be more changes to come.

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