15-Oct-2025 14:49

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated in its latest World Economic Outlook that after a strong start to the year, agricultural commodity prices declined, thanks to ample supplies and the tariffs. From March to August 2025, the IMF's food and beverages price index fell by 4.8 percent, led by sharp declines in coffee, cereal, and sugar prices. This reversed early-year gains, when coffee and cocoa prices surged because of bad weather in major exporters and tight global supply. Cereal prices dropped by 11.1 percent amid strong harvest prospects in major producing countries, such as the United States, Russia, Brazil, and Argentina. Coffee prices plunged by 16.7 percent, with the IMF Coffee Index retreating from its February historic high as supply prospects improved in top producer Brazil and as US tariff uncertainty grew. IMF noted further that Corn prices fell 11.9 percent, pressured by Brazil's large harvest in the second quarter and promising crop conditions in the United States. Upside risks to the food price outlook could stem from new export restrictions, which might raise global prices by tightening international supply even as they put downward pressure on food prices in some exporting countries'and because of potential bad weather resulting from La Ni'a in the fourth quarter. Larger-than-expected harvests and higher tariffs pose the main downside risk.

Powered by Commodity Insights