OPEC stated in a latest monthly update that the global economy remained on a healthy trajectory in 1H25, supported by sustained consumer demand and easing trade uncertainty. Upward revisions to the US economic growth figure for 2Q25 further strengthened this trend, more than offsetting the weaker 1Q25 performance that had been affected by distortions ahead of tariff implementation. As global trade uncertainty eased, growth patterns showed signs of normalisation.

US trade flows stabilised following the trade agreements reached over the summer, though risks persist due to new sector- and product-specific tariffs, including those recently announced tariffs on lumber, labelled pharmaceuticals, and additional steel and aluminium derivative products. While US trade negotiations within North America made some progress, negotiations with China remain unresolved. The US’s recent indication that it may reimpose tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese imports, following China's expansion of its export controls on particularly rare earths, has once again underscored the lingering uncertainty surrounding trade policy.

In OECD economies, the US grew by 3.8%, q-o-q, SAAR, in 2Q25, revised upward by 0.5 percentage points in the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), following a contraction of 0.6%, q-o-q, SAAR, in 1Q25. The upward revision reflected stronger consumer spending and investment in 2Q25. Eurozone growth was confirmed at 0.5%, q-o-q, SAAR, in 2Q25, continuing the expansion trend but down from 2.3% in 1Q25, when exports had surged ahead of tariff implementation. Japan’s economy expanded by 2.2%, q-o-q, SAAR, in 2Q25, up from 0.3% in 1Q25, with the 1Q25 figure revised from a slight contraction in the first estimate.

In non-OECD economies, China maintained solid momentum in 2Q25, recording growth of 5.2%, y-o-y, a slight deceleration from 5.4% in 1Q25 amid weaker trade with the US. India’s economy expanded by 7.8%, y-o-y, in 2Q25, up from 7.4% in 1Q25, supported by strong public consumption. Brazil’s economy grew by 2.2%, y-o-y, in 2Q25, down from 2.9% in 1Q25, as manufacturing and construction slowed, though agricultural and services activity remained firm. Russia’s growth moderated to 1.1%, y-o-y, in 2Q25, down from 1.4% in 1Q25, reflecting tight monetary policy and softer consumer demand.

Powered by Commodity Insights