Hiring and Production Outlook Improves in Manufacturing: FICCI Survey
Similarly, on hiring front the outlook for the sector seems to have slightly improved for near future. While in Q-3 of 2017-18, 70% respondents mentioned that they were not likely to hire additional workforce, this percentage has come down to 65% for Q-3 of 2018-19. Going forward it is expected that hiring scenario will improve further, noted the Survey.
FICCI's latest quarterly survey assessed the sentiments of manufacturers for Q-3 (October-December 2018-19) for eleven major sectors namely automotive, capital goods, cement and ceramics, chemicals, fertilizers and pharmaceuticals, electronics & electricals, leather and footwear, metal & metal products, paper products, textiles, textile machinery and tyre. Responses have been drawn from over 300 manufacturing units from both large and SME segments with a combined annual turnover of over 2.2 lakh crore.
In terms of order books, 43% of the respondents in October-December 2018 are expecting higher number of orders against 42% in October-December 2017-18.
The outlook for exports is somewhat stable as 36% of the participants are expecting a rise in exports for Q-3 2018-19 and 32% are expecting exports to continue on same path as that of same quarter last year, observed the Survey. However, rupee depreciation has not led to any significant increase in exports as 78% of the respondents reported that the exports were not affected much by rupee depreciation. Thereby, emphasizing that there were other global factors that are restricting the growth of our exports.
Source FICCI Survey
However, the overall capacity utilization in manufacturing remains low at 75% in Q-3 2018-19. The average capacity utilization for the manufacturing sector in the last few quarters has been around 75% only as per the Survey. The future investment outlook, though moderate, is slightly better than that was perceived in Q-3 of 2017-18. 47% respondents reported plans for capacity additions for the next six months (46% in Q-3 of 2017-18).
High raw material prices, high cost of finance, uncertainty of demand, shortage of skilled labor, high imports, requirement of technology upgradation, excess capacities, delay in disbursements of state and central subsidies are some of the major constraints which are affecting expansion plans of the respondents.
In sectors like automotive, capital goods, leather and footwear and textiles machinery average capacity utilization has either increased or remained almost same in Q-3 of 2018-19 as compared to Q-2 2018-19. In sectors such as Chemicals, Fertilizers and Pharmaceuticals, Cement and Ceramics, Electronics & Electricals, Metals & Metal Products, Paper Products and Textiles the capacity utilization has fallen in Q-3 2018-19 vis-a-vis Q-2 2018-19.
|Table: Current Average Capacity Utilization Levels as Reported in Survey (%)|
|Sector||Average Capacity Utilization in Q-3 2018-19||Average Capacity Utilization in Q-2 2018-19||Average Capacity Utilization in Q-4 |
2017-18 & Q-1 2018-19
|Average Capacity Utilization in Q-3 |
|Cement and Ceramics||60||70||70||73|
|Chemicals, Fertilizers & Pharmaceuticals||74||82||84||78|
|Electronics & Electricals||68||69||65||76|
|Leather & Footwear||60||60||70||75|
|Medical Devices and Technologies||NA||70||NA||NA|
|Metals & Metal Products||74||86||75||81|
|*NA: Not available due to lack of data|
86% of the respondents maintained either more or same level of inventory, which is slightly more as compared to 83% in the previous quarter but less than 90% as was the case in Q-3 of 2017-18. This has been due to low domestic and export demand.
Average interest rate paid by the manufacturers has slightly increased to be 10.6% against 10.2% p.a. during last quarter but the highest rate being as high as 17%. The recent cut in repo rate by RBI shall come as a relief for the industry and it expects more reduction in the rates in coming months to drive investments.
Based on expectations in different sectors, it is noted that high growth is expected in Capital Goods, Textiles and Automotive in Q-3 2018-19 whereas moderate growth is expected in Leather & Footwear, Metals and Metal Products, Paper Products, and Textile Machinery, Tyre and Electronics & Electricals sector. The growth also seems to be more broad-based compared to what it was in Q-3 of 2017-18.
|Table: Growth expectations for Q-2 2018-19 compared with Q-2 2017-18|
|Leather & Footwear||Moderate|
|Metals and Metal Products||Moderate|
|Electronics & Electricals||Moderate|
|Chemicals, Fertilizers & Pharmaceuticals||Low|
|Note: Strong > 10%; 5% < Moderate < 10%; Low < 5%|
Source: FICCI Survey
The cost of production as a percentage of sales for manufacturers in the survey has risen for 77% respondents. This, of course, is significantly higher than the percentage of 62% for Q-3 of 2017-18. This is primarily due to increased cost of raw materials, wages, power cost, rising crude oil prices, increase in finance cost and rupee depreciation.
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